BTC Price Prediction: Analyzing Short-Term Pressures and Long-Term Potential Through 2040

#BTC

• Technical Crossroads: BTC sits below its 20-day MA with bearish MACD, suggesting near-term consolidation
• Regulatory Catalysts: Potential U.S. state-level adoption and Asian ETF approvals may counterbalance selling pressure
• Long-Term Scarcity: Fixed supply and growing institutional demand underpin multi-decade appreciation potential

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Short-Term Bearish Signals Emerge

BTC is currently trading at $104,744, slightly below its 20-day moving average of $105,811, indicating potential short-term bearish pressure. The MACD histogram shows a negative value of -720.45, reinforcing the downward momentum. Bollinger Bands suggest a tightening range, with the price hovering NEAR the middle band. 'The convergence of these indicators points to cautious market sentiment,' says BTCC financial analyst Emma. 'A break below the lower band at $101,905 could trigger further declines.'

Mixed Market Sentiment as Regulatory and Institutional Developments Unfold

News headlines highlight divergent forces impacting BTC. Arizona's revived Bitcoin reserve bill and South Korea's planned BTC ETF launch signal growing institutional adoption. However, warnings of a potential drop to $92K and reports of market turmoil introduce uncertainty. 'The regulatory momentum in the U.S. and Asia is bullish long-term,' notes BTCC's Emma, 'but retail investors appear nervous given the technical setup.' Mining firms expanding to the U.S. and corporations accumulating crypto mirror MicroStrategy's strategy, creating a complex demand dynamic.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Arizona’s Bitcoin Reserve Bill Revived: Will the State Finally Approve?

Arizona lawmakers have reignited discussions around the Bitcoin Reserve Bill, a legislative proposal that would establish a state-managed fund for handling seized cryptocurrencies. The bill, known as HB 2324, narrowly passed the Senate with a 16–14 vote and now awaits House approval. This marks a second attempt after an earlier version was rejected.

The proposed fund would empower the state treasurer to manage seized digital assets, including storage in approved wallets or liquidation via licensed exchanges. Notably, the bill updates Arizona’s asset forfeiture laws to explicitly include cryptocurrencies—a previously undefined category.

Proceeds from liquidated assets would first allocate $300,000 to the Attorney General’s Office, with remaining funds split between state agencies. The Governor’s stance remains uncertain, given prior opposition to crypto-related legislation.

Arizona Senate Reconsiders Bill to Include Bitcoin in State Reserves

Arizona's HB2324 bill, initially rejected by the House of Representatives, has gained renewed momentum as the Senate pushes for reevaluation. The legislation would permit the state to allocate a portion of its financial reserves to Bitcoin and other digital assets—a pioneering move in U.S. public finance.

The bill's revival signals growing institutional interest in cryptocurrency integration. If passed, Arizona could set a precedent for other states exploring digital asset adoption. Critics remain divided on the risks of volatility versus the potential for diversification.

Market observers note the proposal coincides with Bitcoin's resilience as a macro asset. The debate reflects broader tensions between traditional finance and decentralized systems—with Arizona emerging as an unlikely battleground.

South Korea to Launch Local Bitcoin ETFs by 2025 End: FSC Roadmap

South Korea's Financial Services Commission (FSC) has unveiled a plan to approve domestic spot Bitcoin ETFs by late 2025, marking a pivotal shift in the nation's crypto regulatory stance. The move fulfills President Lee Jae Myung's campaign pledge to lift the ban on cryptocurrency ETFs, positioning the country as a potential leader in institutional crypto adoption.

The roadmap submitted to the Presidential Committee outlines stringent safeguards including enhanced AML protocols and custody requirements. With Korean households holding $75.7 billion in crypto assets, successful ETF implementation could significantly amplify institutional participation.

Parallel plans for won-pegged stablecoins aim to address currency volatility concerns highlighted in recent IMF research. The initiative underscores Seoul's ambition to outpace regional rivals like Singapore and Hong Kong in establishing a regulated digital asset hub.

Bitcoin Faces Crossroads as Institutional and Retail Forces Diverge

Bitcoin's unusual stability near $104,500 amidst geopolitical turbulence reveals a market at an inflection point. CryptoQuant's June 19 warning of potential drops to $92,000—or even $81,000—contrasts sharply with Glassnode's interpretation of quiet on-chain activity as institutional maturation. The demand momentum tracker sits at historic lows, with ETF flows down 60% since April and whale accumulation halved.

Derivatives now dominate spot volumes by 16x, signaling sophisticated positioning. Flowdesk observes a 'coiled' market primed for movement, noting growing traction in tokenized assets like gold-backed XAUt. Polymarket traders remain divided between $90,000 and $120,000 targets, reflecting the tension between fading retail participation and institutional accumulation.

Arizona Senate Revives Bitcoin Reserve Bill After Initial Rejection

Arizona's Senate has reignited efforts to establish a state-run Bitcoin reserve, approving House Bill 2324 in a 16-14 vote. The legislation, initially rejected in May, was revived through a procedural motion by Republican Senator Janae Shamp. The bill now returns to the House for reconsideration.

The proposed 'Bitcoin and Digital Assets Reserve Fund' would manage cryptocurrency assets seized through criminal forfeiture. Under the plan, the first $300,000 would go to the Attorney General's office, with remaining funds split between the AG, state general fund, and the new reserve. The bill also expands Arizona's asset forfeiture laws to include digital assets.

This development follows Governor Katie Hobbs' recent signing of HB 2749, signaling growing institutional acceptance of cryptocurrency in state governance. The vote largely followed party lines, with only one Republican opposing the measure.

Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin Stability Masks Divergent Analyst Views Amid Warning of Potential Drop to $92K

Bitcoin holds steady above $104,500 as Asian markets open, showing remarkable resilience despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The flagship cryptocurrency has remained virtually flat this week, posting only a 2% decline—a sign of stability that's dividing analyst opinions.

Three prominent reports from CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and Flowdesk paint a consistent picture of subdued market conditions: volatility has evaporated, price action remains range-bound, and on-chain activity languishes at depressed levels. The retail frenzy of previous months has faded, leaving institutional players—from ETF managers to whale accounts—as the dominant market force.

CryptoQuant's June 19 analysis strikes the most bearish tone, warning of potential downside to $92,000 support with a worst-case scenario of $81,000 if demand continues weakening. Spot buying persists but trails historical trends, while ETF inflows have plunged 60% since April. Whale accumulation—often a leading indicator—has halved from peak levels.

Major Crypto Mining Firms Expand Operations to the US

Bitmain, Canaan, and MicroBT—three of the world's largest Bitcoin mining equipment manufacturers—are establishing new production facilities in the United States. The move is a direct response to heightened import tariffs imposed by the US government following the 2024 elections. By localizing production, these firms aim to circumvent trade barriers and accelerate delivery to American clients.

Bitmain, the industry leader by sales volume, began US operations in December. Canaan has initiated trial production, while MicroBT is pursuing a "localization strategy" to mitigate tariff impacts. Sanjay Gupta of Auradine notes a stark imbalance: though North America hosts 30% of global Bitcoin mining activity, over 90% of hardware still originates from China.

Companies Amass Billions in Cryptocurrency Following MicroStrategy's Lead

The 2021 bull market was defined by venture capital firms taking leveraged bets on cryptocurrencies, with entities like Three Arrows Capital (3AC) driving momentum. Today, publicly traded companies are adopting similar strategies—but on a far larger scale. MicroStrategy, under Michael Saylor, has accumulated tens of billions in Bitcoin, surpassing the cumulative crypto holdings of 2021’s most aggressive investors.

Semler Scientific exemplifies this trend, announcing plans to expand its Bitcoin reserves to 105,000 BTC by 2027. The company appointed Joe Burnett as Bitcoin Strategy Director and will fund purchases through stock offerings, debt financing, and operational income. Analysts predict 600-700 firms could emulate this approach within a year, potentially injecting $50-$100 billion into crypto markets.

Cryptocurrencies Face Potential Collapse Amid Market Turmoil

Bitcoin's brief surge to $112,000 in 2025 failed to sustain momentum as geopolitical unrest triggered a cascade of market instability. The resulting oil price surge exposed deeper vulnerabilities, with altcoins bearing the brunt of the downturn. Analyst Bastille's grim prognosis warns of an impending crypto reset, drawing parallels to November 2022's investor anxiety.

The altcoin market's structural weaknesses have become glaring. Ephemeral tokens and predatory trading patterns dominate, leaving retail investors vulnerable to sophisticated 'snipers' exploiting rapid capital rotations. This environment rewards unethical behavior while punishing those attempting to navigate the volatility with traditional strategies.

Bastille's analysis suggests the current crisis stems from fundamental flaws rather than temporary geopolitical shocks. The proliferation of pump-and-dump schemes has eroded trust, with weaker projects collapsing under the weight of speculative excess. Market dynamics now favor those with the speed and ruthlessness to capitalize on fleeting opportunities.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

While precise long-term predictions are challenging, BTCC's Emma outlines a framework based on current trends:

'These ranges account for cyclical volatility,' emphasizes Emma. 'The 2025 outlook reflects current technical headwinds, while later projections assume accelerating network adoption.'